Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump at the G20 summit in Hamburg (2017). Picture: Kremlin.ru / CC-BY-SA-4.0
Putin and Trump meet without anything to discuss. There were, however, motives for an assassination attempt – on Putin
This article is neither commentary nor news and does not contain privileged information. It is rather an attempt to classify the most recent developments in world politics and to learn from the last seventy years.
Gaining insights from world history for the future is a difficult undertaking. As the philosopher Nassim Taleb writes, the course of the world presents itself to an observer from the perspective of a moving train, if one looks out of the last carriage to the rear. It is practically impossible to foresee exactly what will come into view next, only in the distant overall view does the picture make sense.
Taleb, in his bestseller The Black Swan, has addressed the power of improbable, unforeseen but serious events to fundamentally change the course of the world. Among other things, the terrorist attacks of 11 September are responsible for this. September, but also positive things like the discovery of quantum mechanics or the development of the Internet.
But back to the present. Is there anything special about the planned meeting of the presidents?? Probably because the two most powerful heads of state in the world want to improve relations between their countries without having special support in their respective governmental environments. This situation probably existed last in 1963 between Khrushchev and Kennedy, although other circumstances are very different.
To understand history means to see events in their logical context, which often reveals itself only after a long time, after opening the relevant archives. On the background of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Kennedy on 22. November 1963 in Dallas are mentioned in the books JFK and the Unspeakable, The Devil’s Chessboard or also in Markus Kompas Cold War Leaks sensational connections.
In 1961 Kennedy was in open conflict with the CIA, which had tried to force him into a war against Cuba with the deliberately amateurish invasion of the Bay of Pigs. To the horror of the militars, Kennedy refused, and also peacefully resolved the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
While the CIA was trying to kill Castro and Kennedy’s generals were trying to persuade him to launch a nuclear first strike against the Soviet Union (he secretly recorded the conversations on a tape recorder under his desk), Kennedy was secretly corresponding with Khrushchev and warning him against a coup in the U.S. (!).
I will splinter the CIA in a thousand pieces and scatter it to the winds
John F. Kennedy
On the bizarre circumstances of his murder and the numerous cover-ups in the subsequent investigation, there is much literature, also confusing in its detail. But to be convinced today that Kennedy was not killed by his own people, but by a confused lone perpetrator, is like believing in Santa Claus.
What has all this to do with today’s situation?? Just as then, the power and interests of the U.S. government are difficult to fathom from the outside. The only thing that is certain is that the USA is perceived worldwide as a major risk to world peace and seems to be interested in igniting and fomenting conflicts of all kinds.
One has so the impression, the USA were at the moment in all corners of the world with a rough torch on the way and became everywhere the forest anzunden.
Forced to move on the devil’s chessboard
To search for the causes of these political, economic and military upheavals would be an important task of present-day politics and of course also of the media, which, however, usually prefer to make themselves the mouthpiece of irrational agitation.
The erratic behavior of the U.S. government, devoid of any humanitarian, technical or other global vision, is perhaps really due to the fact that its financial situation is desolate and a national bankruptcy has not yet occurred only due to special circumstances. Printing money, as practiced by other Western central banks, only works as long as the U.S. dollar is still the international reserve currency.
It is obvious, however, that this screw is beginning to rust. Symptomatic of this is, for example, a G-7 of highly indebted countries circling around itself, which in terms of their economic importance are outnumbered by the Shanghai Union (Russia, China, India and China).a.) have long since fallen back. Russia and China in particular are ushering in the end of the dominance of the U.S. dollar by settling oil transactions in other currencies (which has not gone well for smaller countries like Libya or Venezuela, Iran is on the target right now). Realistically, within a decade or two at the most, the days of the U.S. empire are numbered – unless something happens.
One way to distract from this prospect and spread uncertainty, terror and fear of war worldwide would be to assassinate Putin. Contrary to the campaigns in the media, he has consistently behaved in a de-escalating manner in recent years and has thus become a level-headed but determined opponent of the U.S.A.
Good bad reasons
It almost seems that the U.S. is running out of troublemaking material in the world (reportedly even running out of ammunition). Terror does not really exist any more and, above all, hardly anyone believes in the war against it, the subject of IS and Islamist attacks is actually over. The puppet government in Kiev is stirring up the Ukraine conflict, but without much success, Assad is in the process of restoring his power in Syria, and the theater with North Korea is over.
Possible fantasies of a nuclear first strike (as Kennedy had to listen to in 1962) have been fundamentally spoiled by Putin with the presentation of hypersonic weapons in March. But even the public is no longer so easily taken for fools. On the last one "Chemical attack", as a result of Trump sending off his Tomahawk missiles to media applause, the staging leaked out, the Skripal case is no longer perceived as anything but a laughable tall tale, not least because of the massive Russian backlash in public (which is naturally defamed as disinformation).
In general, Putin’s public appearance is a permanent PR disaster for the U.S., once one puts aside the irrational articles in the Western press and informs oneself from primary sources. In press conferences, Putin faces even the most aggressive questions with factual answers; in his statements and interviews, he appears knowledgeable, educated and quick-witted, and even has the patience to use his arguments to break down the far-fetched accusations of American star journalists.
With Trump as more or less welcome collateral damage, the elimination of Putin has been assigned to the "deep state" or. of the "permanent government" the USA will undoubtedly meet. Russia’s Achilles’ heel is the fact that Putin has not yet built a successor who is considered to have comparable abilities, so that his assassination could actually change the country’s policy. Six years, for which Putin has just been overwhelmingly confirmed, is a long time, as John F Kennedy’s biographer aptly remarked in view of his probable re-election in 1964.
Relaxation or stripping?
There are hardly any factual indications of an imminent attack. Allegedly Vienna was suggested by the Russian side as a meeting place, if Helsinki was brought into play by the USA, perhaps a little caution would be appropriate. In part because the meeting was convened by John Bolton.
In the case of someone who openly advocates an invasion of Iran and is not afraid to enforce his already repugnant political goals by threatening the families of unwilling diplomats, one can only wonder whether the criminal or the psychopathic side predominates in him; even George H.W. Bush, the 41. US president, had the notorious warmonger to the "Crazy" paid.
In any case, what is troubling is that Bolton in particular was recently installed on Trump’s team, as was Auben Secretary Mike Pompeo, the former CIA chief and late successor to Allan Dulles. After all, Trump, who has wanted to see Putin since the beginning of his term, was allowed to meet only after a long period of preparation.
By the way, Lavrov wanted to negotiate with Pompeo in advance, in the perhaps naive expectation that the meeting would achieve a result. What actually happens with a West that only wants to rustle?? Does Trump really have anything to say in this? And what is the use of negotiations with a state that kicks all international agreements with pigeons anyway?? In this respect, the Helsinki meeting is peculiarly lacking in perspective.
Ideal conditions for cover-up
However, an assassination in this format had the "Advantage", that a simultaneous death of Trump would divert attention from the real target Putin and enable a whole new dimension of cover-up. You could blame IS, Iran or even China, Russian opposition members or oligarchs, the loser of the World Cup final the day before or any other bullshit, if necessary even a crazy lone perpetrator, in whose recruitment the FBI still has experience (of course he would hardly survive his arrest). More likely, however, would be a remotely detonated bomb or a drone, one of the USA’s last exports anyway.
In any case, the stock market will probably recover soon, and one can imagine how the New York Times will be able to find some positive aspects to the event after a considerable period of time has passed… but well, let’s bring them up "conspiracy theory!"-caller not to hyperventilate, it is everything – really – improbable. However, since punctuation marks are known to save lives ("we are eating now, grandpa!"), we add to the many warnings of the mainstream press "Beware Putin!", "Beware Putin!", "Caution Putin!" Here is a "Watch out, Putin!" added.
Dr. Alexander Unzicker is a physicist, lawyer and non-fiction author.