Ukraine will remain unstable after the elections

The parties landscape is fragmented, hard reforms are unlikely and unclear remains the promised autonomy for the Ostukraine

In Ukraine continue to find struggle between the Ukrainian quarrels and the separatists. Heavy struggle was around the airport in Donetsk. There were dead on both sides, including civilians were killed. Of course, the tagess showers to wake up from their unilateral reporting and also reports from the right-wing extremists, who combat with the Ukrainian dispute, and also of new mass causes of up to 400 dead, discovered by the separatists. Russia wants to accuse Kiev because of the use of degree missile systems war crimes because by this at least 2.To have been killed 500 civilians.

Whether it will come to a peaceful solution of the conflict, continues to be in the stars and is currently unlikely despite all skills. On both sides there are circles that do not want that. The Ukrainian Prasident drive a curling course, even if he tries to keep the agreed ceasefire by all means. But he is under prere in Kiev and may not hide the negotiations with the separatists and Russia to the rough bell.

The difficulties are shown in the fact that Poroshenko has made the offer to give Donetsk and Lugansk a three-year-limited autonomy, but now explained that Ukraine should remain a unitary, ie centralist state, rejects a folderist system. Although this seems to be a termological problem primarily, the US or the Federal Republic are just a folderist state in which the countries have more or less rough inherent levels. Now he seems to want to give the impression that the promised decentralization should only be properly. So he may calm down the nationalist force in West Ukraine, but not the one to more autonomy in the Ostukraine. Poroshenko wants to prevent the situation from becoming a frozen conflict, which is legally no independent state, but factual areas are independent as in Transnistria or Abkhazia. But the loop but on both sides the mutual mistrust on the boiler.

But the sticking point was initially allowed, provided that the ceasefire should be kept, which will be presented for the October parliamentary elections. Participate will not participate in the Crimea, which was allowed to surprise anyone, but also not the areas controlled by the separatists. The 450 seats are not achieved. 29 parties will compete. It will also be questionable whether the elections can be carried out in the Ostukraine in all the above elections in the Ostukraine. The half of the deputies is chosen on the nationwide lists of the parties, the other over a local direct mandate.

The question will be whether the chosen parliament will then also be the East Ukraine. But the question is also what force ratios will arise. It is clear that the block Poroshenko will achieve most votes, but the nationalist or right-wing extremists will also be represented, also former representatives of the Communist Party and the Party of the Regions of Yanukovich were allowed to be. You will not achieve a majority anymore, but offer a clear opposition to the awesome.

The problem was allowed to lie in a further fragmentation that mightily mitigate a government stability and implementation of reforms. Poroschenkos Block is just 30 percent predicted in surveys, the rest achieves 6 percent or less like the radical party or the Fatherland Party. It becomes crucial how many votes will be achieved by the Popular Front, a new nationalist and neoliberal party, which enters Jezenjuk and the commander of the right militias. It was quite unlikely that the new parliament will be willing to endorse the planned savings and privatization measures necessary to meet the IMF receivables.